AI Overview Traffic Loss Calculator
Estimate the clicks and revenue at risk when AI Overviews sit above your organic results.
How to use it
- List your keywords as
keyword, monthly volume, average position, one per line. - Set the click reduction you expect when an AI Overview appears - 30% is a reasonable starting assumption.
- Optionally add a conversion rate and value per conversion to turn lost clicks into lost revenue.
- Read the table and totals. Adjust the assumptions to see best and worst cases.
What it does, and what it does not
It does: estimate the clicks you get now from a position, apply an AI Overview click reduction, and total the monthly and yearly clicks - and, if you add conversion figures, the revenue - at risk.
It does not: measure your actual losses. It uses a public CTR-by-position curve and your assumed reduction. It is a planning model to size the risk and prioritise, not a report of what happened. Use Search Console for real numbers.
Reference
AI Overviews - the AI-generated answers Google places above the traditional results - change the deal for organic search. When one appears, many searchers get what they need without clicking any blue link, so even a strong ranking can lose traffic. This calculator helps you size that risk across your keywords so you can decide where it matters and where it does not.
The model is deliberately simple and transparent. It starts from a public estimate of organic click-through by position - roughly 28% at position one, falling to single digits by the middle of page one - and multiplies by your monthly search volume to estimate current clicks. It then applies the click reduction you set for keywords where an AI Overview shows. Studies and early data have reported reductions anywhere from around 15% to over 60% depending on the query type, so rather than bake in one number, the tool lets you choose. Add a conversion rate and a value per conversion and it translates lost clicks into lost revenue, which is the number that actually drives decisions.
Two honest caveats. First, not every query triggers an AI Overview, and they appear far more on informational, "what is" and "how to" searches than on transactional ones - so a business built on buying-intent keywords is less exposed than a purely informational blog. Second, these are estimates stacked on estimates; treat the output as a directional planning figure, not a measurement. The practical use is prioritisation: run your top keywords through it, see which ones carry real revenue at risk, and shift effort toward queries where you still earn the click - transactional terms, comparisons, and content that answers what an AI summary cannot. Then watch your actual click-through in Search Console over time to see how it plays out for your site specifically.
Questions
How accurate is this?
It is a planning estimate, not a measurement. It uses a public CTR-by-position curve and the click reduction you choose. Use it to size and prioritise risk, then confirm real changes in Search Console.
What click reduction should I assume?
Reported figures range widely, from about 15% to over 60% depending on query type. Around 30% is a reasonable middle for informational queries. Try a range to see best and worst cases.
Do all my keywords lose traffic to AI Overviews?
No. AI Overviews appear far more on informational queries than transactional ones. Buying-intent keywords are much less exposed, which the model helps you see by keyword.
Where do I get volume and position?
Average position comes from Search Console. Monthly search volume comes from a keyword tool such as Keyword Planner or a paid SEO platform.
Is my keyword data uploaded?
No. The calculation runs entirely in your browser.